By Dr. Faridun Sattarov
In a world of rapid technological change, shifting supply chains, and accelerating energy transition, national strategies succeed only if they are both ambitious and measurable. Uzbekistan’s development agenda for the remainder of this decade, framed by the “Uzbekistan–2030” Strategy, aims to do precisely that: translate long-term national priorities into concrete reforms, trackable indicators, and everyday improvements for citizens and businesses.
Adopted in September 2023, Uzbekistan–2030 sets out a mid-term vision and performance indicators for modernization across the economy, public services, governance, and environmental sustainability. Now, building on the first phase of implementation (2023–2025), the government is preparing an updated 2026–2030 results framework, designed to better reflect real-world conditions, global trends, and the need for sharper accountability.
Uzbekistan’s recent reforms have already produced measurable progress. Over a short period, the poverty rate declined from 11% to 6.8%; GDP rose from $102.6 billion to $140 billion; exports increased from $24.9 billion to $27.9 billion; and foreign investment expanded from $17.1 billion to $42 billion. Unemployment fell from 6.8% to 4.9%, while foreign tourist arrivals grew from 6.6 million to 8.6 million.
At the same time, Uzbekistan recognizes that the next stage of growth will be shaped by external shocks and structural shifts from energy-market transformation and industrial technological leaps to the rise of the digital economy, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and data governance. The strategy’s evolution reflects this: it is designed to remain relevant as the global environment changes, without losing sight of the country’s long-term development goals.
Five priorities for modernization by 2030
The strategy is organized around a set of national priorities that speak to both economic competitiveness and social wellbeing. These include: sustainable economic growth; a modern education, healthcare, and social protection system; improved ecological conditions; a fair, modern state that serves the people; and guaranteed sovereignty and security.
What makes this approach notable is not only the breadth of the agenda, but also the emphasis on measurable delivery by turning priorities into targets and targets into implementation plans.
Sustainable growth
Uzbekistan–2030 places macroeconomic stability and investment-led growth at the core of its modernization agenda. Key aims include raising per-capita income above $5,000 by 2030, maintaining public debt at a prudent level (not exceeding 50% of GDP), and achieving inflation in the 5–6% range by decade’s end.
The strategy also highlights institutional reforms that improve the business climate and deepen financial markets, such as reducing the share of state banks in total banking assets and creating legal foundations for Islamic finance services in multiple commercial banks. These steps are meant to strengthen private-sector dynamism, expand access to finance, and boost the efficiency of capital allocation.
Productivity improvements in core sectors are also central. In agriculture, for example, the agenda includes raising average income per hectare toward $5,000, reflecting a push toward higher value-added production and improved profitability.
Human capital
Uzbekistan–2030 treats human capital as the decisive factor for long-term competitiveness. In higher education, targets include expanding international partnerships (including dual-degree programs with globally ranked universities), increasing research capacity, and improving the global standing of domestic universities.
It is also a strategy of infrastructure and access: plans include building additional university teaching capacity (120,000 new seats) and significantly expanding student housing (150,000 places).
In general education, the strategy emphasizes basic conditions that support learning, such as universal access to clean drinking water and modern sanitation in educational institutions, as well as transport support for students in remote areas.
Green development
Uzbekistan’s environmental agenda is not a side policy. In fact, it is embedded as a national development priority, especially given regional climate risks and the Aral Sea crisis. The strategy includes ambitious environmental targets such as planting 200 million trees annually, increasing the national greenery rate to 30%, and creating nearly 2,000 green parks.
In the Aral Sea region, plans include expanding green areas to 2.6 million hectares (around 80% of the territory) and increasing forest cover to 2.3 million hectares.
On energy transition, the strategy sets out a clear direction: scaling renewable energy capacity and increasing renewables’ share in electricity generation and consumption. Targets include reaching 25,000 MW of renewable capacity and raising renewables to 54% of total generation by 2030, alongside reducing greenhouse gas intensity per unit of GDP by 35% compared to 2010 levels.
A modern state that serves citizens
A defining feature of Uzbekistan–2030 is a governance model oriented toward service delivery and accountability. Priorities include expanding state services closer to citizens, especially through the “mahalla” system (i.e., a traditional institution of local self-governance), such as enabling access to more than 100 public services “in one step” and digitizing citizen-facing processes at the neighborhood level.
Governance modernization extends to the national level, with goals that include digitizing core government processes and using digital tools, including AI, in legislative workflows.
The broader point is to make the state more transparent, efficient, and responsive, so that reform outcomes can be measured not only in macro indicators, but also in citizens’ daily experiences.
Digital economy
The strategy also recognizes that future competitiveness depends on technology and talent. Among the targets: expanding IT Park residents, increasing the share of IT services in GDP, creating up to 100,000 jobs through the IT ecosystem, and scaling exports of IT services, AI, and software products to $5 billion.
This shift from technology adoption to technology production signals an aspiration to integrate more deeply into global value chains and diversify exports beyond traditional sectors.
Implementation that can be tracked
Ambition matters, but delivery matters more. The proposed update to the strategy emphasizes clearer performance indicators, measurable evaluation, and fully digitalized monitoring of progress. It also stresses alignment: sectoral and regional strategies are expected to be fully harmonized with Uzbekistan–2030 goals.
Just as importantly, the strategy’s implementation framework assigns personal responsibility to the first leaders of ministries, agencies, and local authorities for achieving performance indicators. The decree draft also calls for regular public updates, including presenting progress to the public at least twice per year.
An open agenda for partnership
Although Uzbekistan–2030 is a domestic roadmap, its logic is international: more competitive markets, more investable projects, greener growth, and stronger human capital. The strategy explicitly situates Uzbekistan within global trends and emphasizes learning from international best practice while improving performance in international indices and benchmarks.
For foreign investors, development partners, and global institutions, the key takeaway is this: Uzbekistan is not merely setting aspirations. It is building an implementation system that links national goals to sectoral reforms, measurable indicators, digital monitoring, and public accountability.
If the next four years match the pace of recent progress, Uzbekistan–2030 could become a practical example of how a reforming economy turns strategy into sustained growth and how sustainable development can be made concrete, measurable, and deliverable.
Author:Dr. Faridun Sattarov is the Chief Research Fellow at the Institute of Legislation and Legal Policy under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan
