By Kamran A. Behbudov
Are the world’s resources divided and exhausted or is it continuing? What are more modern resources? The Caucasus is still within the sphere of traditional interests. Who needs to fight for the South Caucasus today and why? There are many questions. The answers are few. Because, in the era of modern information abundance, great powers threaten the consciousness of the people. The political norms and principles of the world are violated. As a historical country of the South Caucasus, we want peace here. Because we offered Armenia, which occupied our territory for at least 30 years, to return our territories through peace negotiations. In the 20th and 21st centuries, such an example of military political tolerance did not happen in the world.
In the Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan ensured its territorial integrity and ended the 30-year occupation in 44 days without asking any country for help, completely changed the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev drew a new map of the region with his visionary policy, and our country became the leading state of the South Caucasus. In this period of formation of the new world order, the emergence of new formats of cooperation, along with the clash of interests of the superpowers, complicated the situation in the region.
Today, the most important issue in the South Caucasus is the establishment of peace and security in the region against the background of the normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, and our state is implementing a deliberate policy in this direction. Azerbaijan, which attaches great importance to coexistence and friendly neighborliness of the peoples of the region, proves to be a country that contributes to regional development and international cooperation by promoting peace. Our country, which has become the main actor of the processes taking place in the region, is a favorable location from both geostrategic and geopolitical points of view.
Russia, the European Union, the United States, Turkey, China, etc., which show special interest in the South Caucasus. countries like are trying to gain advantage in the region and ensure their national interests by deepening their relations in various fields. On the one hand, major states are looking for ways of equal bilateral and multilateral cooperation, and on the other hand, they are actively competing for their geopolitical and geo economic interests. In this sense, geo-economic interests of the regional and non-regional states regarding the use of energy resources of the South Caucasus collide. Located at the intersection of Europe and Asia and covering a large area, open to the world with great transport and communication opportunities, the transit-corridor opportunities of the South Caucasus not only meet the interests of healthy competition of most countries of the region, but also enable all the countries of the world to invest in the region’s economy and comprehensive economic cooperation. creates. The South Caucasus has its energy resources and hydrocarbon resources, East-West land, air, waterways and transport-communication corridors, etc. is considered one of the main places where transnational geostrategic and geo economic interests intersect and collide. The expansion of NATO and the European Union to the East and the transformation of the South Caucasus countries into a new neighbor of the West has caused Europe’s interest in the political, economic and military spheres.
Russia is the first of the states trying to protect its influence in the South Caucasus at any cost. At the same time, the European Union, NATO and their member states carry out cooperation and partnership within the framework of various programs in the South Caucasus. In this sense, the South Caucasus is an important geopolitical region where the interests of Asia, Europe, the United States and Russia are reflected.
Today, the traditional powers of the region, Turkey and Iran, also increased their influence in the Caucasus after the collapse of the USSR. Russian influence continued in another phase. It is understandable that Turkey has always been a supporter of peace and justice in the region. It should be noted that the West has always considered Georgia, Iran, Russia, Armenia, and Turkey to be natural allies in the region. Of course, the mentioned political centers have established certain relations with other countries in the region. However, from the historical-cultural and geopolitical point of view, the classification is as mentioned above. China, which has strengthened in recent years and intends to become a global power pole, is also increasing its interest in the region. The recent warning to Europe by the spokesperson of the Chinese foreign policy ministry about the Chinese company’s sanctions increases the possibility of the closeness of this country’s relations with Russia. China strives to develop its relations with Azerbaijan, as well as with Armenia and Georgia, and tries to build a foothold on the economic factor, which is the only “soft resource” that can satisfy its interests in the Caucasus. As a center with less strong ties to the Caucasus in the historical and cultural context, this strategy of Beijing is reasonable. In recent years, China has been trying to form relations in the region in humanitarian spheres such as science and education. The South Caucasus has historically attracted attention as a region of great geopolitical importance. At the time of the collapse of the USSR, the interest of other regional and global actors in the region, which partially left Russia’s sphere of influence, increased. Gradually, in the example of the USA and Europe, the West tried to strengthen itself in the Caucasus. Unlike Russia, the expansion policy of the West, which is not only based on hard power, has a cultural and socio-economic nature, and has had a wide spectrum, from providing support to the countries of the region that have just gained independence in the initial period, to providing mediation services in resolving conflicts.
The collective West was interested in removing Russia from the South Caucasus and integrating the region into the Euro-Atlantic space. Although Georgia has taken certain steps in this direction, it is still far from EU and NATO membership. Since Pashinyan came to power, Armenia has been trying to move towards the West. However, it is true that the Western powers continue to use the “child’s head deception concept”. Armenia’s road to Europe is very far. This is a message brought closer by words, which in some cases can be useful for someone and something for extrapolation. Official Baku believes that at a time when we are so close to peace, the actions of any force that slows down the process are against the interests of the South Caucasus community.
Official Russia is seeing signs of launching a plan designed to discredit Pashinyan’s power in the Armenian society and to lose his power, then the claim that the obstacle to the strengthening of the West in Armenia is great can be accepted as an undisputed reality.
Regarding Azerbaijan’s approach, official Baku has pursued a pragmatic policy in the South Caucasus for many years. Azerbaijan, which is one of the most active members of the Non-Aligned Movement, has not taken steps that would create obligations either in the line of integration with the West or in the issue of participation in Russia’s geopolitical projects. It is true that there are facts such as Eastern Partnership, cooperation with NATO in peacekeeping missions, as well as participation in the activities of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but Baku is neither as close to the West as Georgia, nor as close to Russia as Armenia.
Turkey’s ties with the Caucasus are very strong, the relations are very deep and deep-rooted. The main aspect that distinguishes the sister country from Russia and Iran is that it has historical relations with all three state-owned nations of the South Caucasus. First of all, let’s note that Russia, which came to the Caucasus in the 18th-19th centuries, is a foreign political power to the region. For history, 200-300 years is not such a big number.
Moreover, as mentioned above, Russia, whose arrival in the Caucasus began with blood, has very few cultural ties with Caucasians. Although important steps were taken in terms of science, education and cultural development, such as the abolition of illiteracy, during a certain period of the Soviet rule, as they say, “what he took is more than what he brought”.
Turkey, on the other hand, has fraternal relations with Azerbaijan that do not need to be described, it is a valuable economic and political ally for Georgia, a door to the West and a member of NATO. Despite the sharp relations between Armenia and Turkey, the process of normalization has expanded in recent years and the process continues. Pashinyan sees Armenia and Turkey as a “main crossing” on the way to Europe.
Let’s look again at the role played by global and regional powers in the context of the security issue in Karabakh. Russia seems to be trying to delay the solution of the issue as much as possible. Iran is against any scenario in which Azerbaijan becomes stronger. Perhaps the West is taking steps to achieve peace soon, and thus eliminate Russia’s excuses for staying in the region. The recent US-European-Armenian meeting is trying to spoil Azerbaijan-Russia relations by making the search for an anti-Russian political “bargaining house” relevant in the region, as well as increasing the predictions that such meetings will continue. However, it is known in historical experience that Azerbaijan has been the most reliable partner for Europe in the last 20 years. Turkey is doing everything in its power to ensure the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and the realization of peace in accordance with Azerbaijan’s interests. The Shusha Declaration can be considered an important historical document in this regard.
Although the EU-Armenia-US summit and the signed agreement, which took place in Brussels, the capital of Belgium, on official documents, provide for economic and to some extent defense assistance to Armenia, in reality, it seems that this process is calculated for a longer-term strategy. This shows that they will expel official Armenia around peace for a long time.
Also, before this summit, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and the head of the EU Commission, Ursula Von Der Leyen, called the President of Azerbaijan, Mr. Ilham Aliyev, which indicates that the parties do not intend, or do not appear, to undermine relations with Azerbaijan because of Armenia. This is the success of the foreign policy of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev. Therefore, it is not difficult to see who this issue is directed against and what the goals are.
The course of events and the happenings show that in the new world order, some regions are going to change hands between the world powers.
The Russian-Ukrainian war, which started on February 24, 2024, is accelerating this process a little more.
Armenia is rapidly being armed by France, India, Greece and Iran. PKK terrorists are brought to the region through Iran and the aim is to use those militants in the war against Azerbaijan. Thus, the states of the region are under serious pressure. Russia, which has played a dominant role in the region for many years, is being suppressed in the region. France is trying to come to the region under the shadow of the USA and the EU. They managed to do this to some extent by bringing the “civilian mission” of the EU to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conventional state border.
Iran is still silent on Armenia’s recent steps and at the same time provides arms and military equipment. In other words, even though Iran considers the West, especially the United States, and NATO as its enemies, it does not voice Armenia’s rapprochement with them. In recent days, Russia has expressed serious concerns and dissatisfaction to Armenia and the West.
At the same time, Turkey, the eternal and eternal ally of Azerbaijan, expresses its concern about the situation created by Armenia in the region through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense.
After the second Karabakh war, the “Six Platform” (Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia + Turkey, Russia and Iran) proposed by Azerbaijan and Turkey has yet to fully become a reality. This causes the region’s problems not to be solved internally, but to be influenced by powers outside the region.
Unlike India, China is busy observing what is happening in the region. Some time ago, an agreement in the field of defense worth 1.6 billion dollars was signed between Azerbaijan and Pakistan. According to this agreement, Azerbaijan plans to purchase Chinese and Pakistani FJ-17 fighter jets and other necessary defense products from Pakistan in the next few years. Of course, the increase of Azerbaijan’s defense capability is not directed against any state or states. The goal here is to increase the defense capacity.
Unlike Azerbaijan, Armenia, both itself and the forces supporting it, try to divert the armament with various pretexts, but they cannot hide that they intend to use it against Azerbaijan. The firing against our military forces in the Nakhchivan and Gazakh directions in recent days shows that Armenia is repeating its wrong steps again. It worries the region. He manipulates the feelings of the public in the South Caucasus.
If we look at what is happening on a larger scale, we will be able to see that the forces in the current non-armed war for the South Caucasus can be divided into four parts.
The first part is the states that have been at the center of events so far, which are Armenia and Azerbaijan. Also, we can include Russia in this division because of its military forces located in Armenia. Azerbaijan, which is part of this division, is already a supporter of peace and stability in the South Caucasus. Because Azerbaijan has eliminated the historical injustice it faced for years. We think that Russia, whose peacekeepers are still in the area, should be interested in peace issues.
The second part is the states that are not at the center of the events, but are interested in the conflict in the South Caucasus and are trying to incite it with various options. These countries are France, India, Iran, Greece. In terms of their interests, these countries seem to be interested in constant tension in the region.
The third part is those who try to solve the events and what happened within the framework of international law. These countries are Turkey, Pakistan, Georgia, Israel and Germany, and partly the United States. Their goal is to manage the region based on international law. However, more attention is expected from the United States in the direction of stability.
The fourth part is observer states. In other words, observing the happenings from the outside. These countries are China, Great Britain. These states are more observant and monitor and analyze the happenings more carefully. It seems that the struggle between Russia and the collective West for Armenia is heating up in the South Caucasus. If we clarify this a bit, we can analyze it not for the sake of Armenia, but as the targeting of Russia’s South Caucasus political course. The effects of this struggle are expected to be accompanied by the opening of the Zangezur Corridor or the involvement of the region in a long-term conflict. In a word, the situation in the South Caucasus is starting to get mixed up again. The already fragile peace in the region is getting weaker every day. The violation of the cease-fire by the Armenian side on the border again shows the footprints of the expected new military conflict in the region. However, in all cases, Armenia should consider that it does not have enough political independence. As a result, the situation will accelerate the internal political conflict in Armenia.
Although it was promised that the issue of “economic development” of Armenia would be discussed in Brussels, there was no need for a meeting in such a format for several hundreds of millions of aid. So, the goal was the allocation of military aid and the signing of a military pact. Especially, the Armenian side’s provocations on the front after the meeting sheds light on this point and proves that Azerbaijan’s concern is not unfounded. The behavior of other geopolitical actors of the region on the eve of the meeting also spoke volumes. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey issued a statement that this initiative, which does not include the participation of Azerbaijan, will lead to the region becoming a field of geopolitical conflicts instead of serving peace in the South Caucasus. We call on third countries to take into account the characteristics of the region in the steps they will take in the context of the process and to approach the parties from an equal distance. We believe that the South Caucasus will rise on the basis of permanent peace and stability established in the region and achieve the regional prosperity it deserves. Turkey, as always, will do its part in this matter and will continue to promote the use of the historical opportunity to achieve permanent peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia tried to dissuade the US and the EU from “geopolitical dreams” through diplomatic channels. Iran, on the other hand, remained silent and did not express any position, as if it is not aware of the attempt of the West, which it has declared as its enemy, to invade Armenia. However, Armenia should not forget that it needs the West only as a tool.
The regional policy implemented by independent Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, all the geopolitical, geoeconomic and military-geostrategic initiatives it has put forward are unequivocally supported in the international world. Our state successfully implements all transnational energy, transport and communication projects as the most reliable and strategic partner in the region.
In the context of the world’s increasing need for energy and the need to expand trade relations, the South Caucasus has become a crossroads of geo-economic interests, attracting the attention of the whole world with its rich hydrocarbon resources, East-West, North-South corridors, transport and communication opportunities.
