ANKARA (Reuters) – A second presidential candidate who lost to Tayyip Erdogan in the 2018 poll could push Turkey’s elections in May to the second round, boosting the president’s chances of victory, the sources said. analysts and polls said.
Muharrem Inse, a former member of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), joined the battle last month, securing a spot in the polls over the weekend and raising concerns about a split in the opposition vote among Erdogan’s opponents. caused it.
In some polls, Ince’s approval rating is above his 5%, and his Panoramatr approval rating last month was his 10%.
Polls and analysts say his supporters would otherwise vote for CHP leader Kemal Kirikdaroglu.
Panoramatr’s head of research, Osman Sert, told his Reuters, “The basic outcome of the inces is to send the election to the second round.” Ads Scroll to continue
He said Ince’s approval rating could drop from the 10% it held for most of last month as the vote draws near. It will not prevent the election from advancing to the second round.
Some analysts say Ince has agreed to a deal with Kirikudarogur and may withdraw before a vote to bolster the opposition.
However, Ince has indicated that he will not yield to such pressure.
“There are no circumstances under which we have to withdraw, and it is technically impossible,” he told broadcaster Habertürk on Monday, noting that Saturday’s official draw had made his place in the ballot official. Ince, whose outspoken speeches and impromptu dances have captured the attention of social media, resigned from the CHP two years ago to form the Homeland Party after twice failing to become CHP leader.
“They say, ‘Muharem Inse, withdraw,'” he told Herbertak, referring to dissenting critics. “The only thing they worry about is, ‘We’re going to lose the election, now let’s account for the culprits.'”
A senior opposition official, who declined to be named because the issue is a sensitive one, said Ince’s candidacy would make it difficult to defeat Erdogan in the first round, but as the opposition alliance hopes. , his endorsements and his Sinan Ogan, the fourth candidate, will drop to nearly 5% by Election Day.
A senior Erdogan AK Party official said internal polls showed support for Ince at around 8-9 percent, but no data was provided.
Political stability
In the May 14 poll, if no presidential candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two will go head-to-head in his second round two weeks later. Voters also elect members of parliament.
Analysts say a candidate could well stand a chance of winning the second round of the presidential election if either the coalition that controls Congress or the opposition party can defend stability. Opinion polls show the AKP will remain the strongest party in parliament.
Support for President Erdogan has dwindled amid perceptions of a slow initial reaction after February’s devastating earthquake. Over 50,000 people died and millions were left homeless. Some voters who oppose Erdogan have expressed dissatisfaction with the diverse main opposition alliances, including those led by former Erdogan allies and Islamic parties.
“The fact that these people have become ministers and hold positions of authority haunts me,” said Seckin Yetkin, a 28-year-old student, who said he would vote for Ince as in 2018.
