By Raza Syed
As Germany prepares for its crucial elections on February 23(tomorrow), immigration has emerged as a central issue, reflecting the country’s complex socio-political landscape. The nation, once heralded for its stability and economic prosperity, now finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with the societal, economic, and political ramifications of its immigration policies. The outcome of these elections will not only shape Germany’s domestic future but also influence its approach to global migration and its role within the European Union.
Germany’s relationship with immigration is rooted in its post-war history. In the 1950s and 1960s, the country experienced an economic boom—known as the Wirtschaftswunder—which was driven in part by the influx of guest workers from countries like Turkey, Italy, and Greece. Over time, these workers and later migrants from conflict regions in the Balkans, the Middle East, and Africa became integral parts of the German labor force and society. However, the 2015 refugee crisis marked a turning point. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to allow over one million asylum seekers into the country, primarily from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, was lauded for its humanitarian intent. Yet, this move also sparked intense domestic debate. Critics contended that the sudden influx strained resources, raised security concerns, and deepened cultural divides, leading to a shift in political discourse around immigration.
In the lead-up to the February 23 elections, immigration has become one of the most divisive topics in Germany’s political debate. Major political parties are offering sharply different visions for the country’s future on this issue. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, has taken a tougher stance on immigration compared to former Chancellor Merkel’s policies. Merz advocates for stricter border controls, faster asylum processing, and increased deportations, a position that aligns with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has gained support in recent years, particularly in economically disadvantaged regions. The AfD has capitalized on anti-immigrant sentiment, calling for drastic reductions in immigration and harsher border security, appealing to voters disillusioned by current policies.
On the other hand, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has called for a more inclusive approach. The SPD advocates for policies that emphasize social cohesion and the integration of immigrants into the labor market, positioning Germany as a modern immigration society. Meanwhile, the Greens, polling at around 14%, have presented themselves as the most pro-immigration party, arguing for more accessible pathways to citizenship, better integration programs, and a humanitarian approach to asylum seekers. They also highlight the role of climate change in driving migration and push for global solutions to address its root causes.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) takes a more pragmatic approach, focusing on the economic benefits of immigration. It proposes a points-based system to attract skilled workers and addresses labor shortages, while also advocating for streamlined asylum procedures. The newly formed left-populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), led by Sahra Wagenknecht, combines left-wing economic policies with strong opposition to immigration. This stance has resonated with some voters, especially in eastern Germany, where the party has made significant gains.
Public opinion on immigration is deeply divided, and the election is expected to serve as a referendum on the country’s approach to migration. While many Germans support the nation’s humanitarian traditions and recognize the economic benefits of immigration, others are concerned about the challenges of integration, security, and cultural preservation. These divisions are particularly evident in the geographical and generational voting patterns: urban areas and younger voters tend to support more progressive immigration policies, while rural areas and older voters lean toward stricter controls.
The outcome of these elections will have significant implications not only for Germany but also for its role within the European Union and the international community. Germany, as the EU’s largest economy and most influential member, plays a central role in shaping European migration policy. A shift toward more restrictive policies in Germany could embolden anti-immigrant movements across Europe, while a reaffirmation of the country’s humanitarian commitments could strengthen efforts to develop a cohesive EU-wide approach. Additionally, Germany’s handling of immigration is closely watched globally, as it sets an example of how democracies can balance humanitarian obligations with the need for social stability and security.
As voters head to the polls on February 23, they will not just be deciding on immigration policy—they will also be making a choice about the kind of society Germany wishes to become. Will it continue to embrace its role as a global leader in migration, or will it retreat into a more insular, restrictive stance? Whatever the outcome, immigration will remain a central issue in the country’s political discourse for years to come, influencing both domestic policy and Germany’s standing on the world stage.
Experts Insight:
Dr. Gevorg Melikyan, Founder of the Armenian Institute for Resilience & Statecraft, commented on the German elections, expressing concerns over the increasing popularity of extremist parties. He highlighted that this trend reflects a significant shift in the political landscape, potentially challenging Germany’s democratic norms. Dr. Melikyan emphasized the importance of recognizing that extremist ideologies, whether from the right or left, pose risks to the stability of modern societies. He asserted that democracy is not a static concept but must evolve in response to changing global and domestic dynamics. The current rise of right-wing ideology in Germany and elsewhere might be a reaction to the broader trend of imposing leftist policies without assessing their long-term effectiveness. Dr. Melikyan warned that failing to maintain a balance could transform democracy into a hidden form of soft dictatorship.
Saqlain Imam, a seasoned journalist and former BBC analyst, provides sharp insights into Germany’s evolving political landscape. He highlights that while economic stagnation, energy security, and NATO commitments are crucial in the upcoming elections, immigration remains the most divisive issue. Imam emphasizes that concerns over housing shortages, rising crime, and border security have intensified the political debate, shaping voter sentiment. Furthermore, he underscores how Germany’s immigration policies impact not only its economic and social stability but also its leadership role within the EU’s asylum system. His analysis captures the intersection of domestic pressures and broader European dynamics.
Assol Mirmanova, an expert in political processes, informational security, propaganda, and radicalization from Kazakhstan, commented on Germany’s elections. She highlighted the diverse political landscape, which, while enabling dynamic coalition-building, also poses significant challenges in times of economic strain and geopolitical uncertainty. Mirmanova noted that voter choices were influenced by the intersection of economic concerns, migration policy, and foreign policy commitments. Despite Chancellor Scholz’s reaffirmation of support for Ukraine, broader political trends suggest that this support may face increasing constraints. The need to collaborate with right-leaning parties, advocating for stricter migration policies, reflects growing public sentiment against large-scale migration. The rise in support for the AfD indicates a shift in voter priorities towards domestic stability and fiscal conservatism. The war in Ukraine has become an increasingly costly engagement, leading to a more cautious foreign policy approach. This does not imply an immediate withdrawal of support but rather a recalibration of commitments. Germany is likely to balance its international obligations with domestic realities. The overarching trend suggests a shift towards more restrained policies in migration and military aid, with public sentiment continuing to shape Germany’s strategic direction.
Pakistani-origin German citizen and political analyst Manzoor Awan, while providing his insights on the current elections, stated that significant amendments have been implemented, leading to the current circumstances. He highlighted three key factors: the increase in the number of young voters, the rise in the number of young candidates, and the growing popularity of the AfD party. Awan expressed his belief that no single party would be able to form a government. Instead, he predicted that a coalition government would be established, which would likely not complete its term in office, necessitating new elections.
Gareth Stamp,an educationlist and Journalist while commented on Germany’s elections said that Germany’s February 23 election casts a shadow over the nation’s future, revealing deep-seated divisions and a potential shift toward political instability. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), under Friedrich Merz, is expected to lead, yet the alarming surge of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to second place underscores a populace increasingly swayed by nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiments. This rise not only threatens the traditional political equilibrium but also raises concerns about the erosion of democratic norms. The potential for political gridlock looms large, as coalition-building becomes increasingly fraught amid polarized party lines. Germany stands at a precarious crossroads, with its commitment to liberal values and social cohesion hanging in the balance.
