NEW DELHI (AP) – India will become the world’s most populous country by the end of this month, overwhelming an aging China, the United Nations said Monday. The milestone raises the question of whether India can replicate the economic successes that have made China the center of the global economy and a leading world power.
The news comes as India, host of her G20 summit this year, is establishing itself as an international player. It is also becoming an attractive destination for multinationals looking to reduce their dependence on China.
By the end of April, India’s population is expected to reach 1.425 billion, meaning it will match and exceed the population of mainland China, the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in a press release.This forecast is based on the latest estimates of world population.
It is not clear when India’s population will overtake China’s. You may already be doing so. Demographers say it is impossible to calculate the date due to limited population data.
Another UN report last week predicted that India would have 2.9 million more people than China by midyear, but that was based on early and mid-year population snapshots. Monday’s announcement is based on analysis that attempts to estimate when the population transition will occur.
The Indian government, which has not conducted a census since 2011, has not publicly commented on the estimates. The timing of when India overtakes China in population is likely to be revised when India conducts its next census, said John Wilmoth, head of the United Nations Population Division, at a news conference at the United Nations headquarters in New York.
The young workers who flocked to Chinese cities to take factory jobs since the 1990s were an integral part of the boom that turned China into the world’s second-largest economy.
However, China’s population will peak in 2022 and has been declining since then. The United Nations says the population could fall below 1 billion by the end of the century. The country’s elderly population is growing, but the fertility rate has fallen from her 1.7 babies per woman in 2017 to her 1.2 in 2022, according to the United Nations.
By contrast, India has the world’s largest young population, high fertility rates and steadily declining infant mortality rates. But experts say the country’s fertility rate has fallen steadily from more than her five births per woman in the 1960s to her two in 2022. , warns of overpopulation warnings. India’s huge population is also facing many challenges at scale, such as the growing threat of climate change, urban-rural inequality, declining numbers of women in the workforce, and widening religious disparities.
“To attribute this century to India, India must make the most of its demographic advantage,” said Brahma Cherani, a professor of strategic affairs at the Center for Policy Studies. “China’s demographic crisis comes at the right time for India’s growth, but only if it can find enough quality jobs for its abundant young people.”
