By Prof.Shabnam Delfani
In recent months and particularly following the ineffectiveness of the “snapback mechanism” and the appointment of Madani-Zadeh as Minister of Economy, we have witnessed an accelerating trend of state interventions in favour of oligarchs and a series of successive shocks to Iran’s economy. The issue is not limited to the executive branch alone. Parliament, the judiciary, the Expediency Council, state broadcasting (IRIB), and the media armies of both reformists and conservatives are all aligned with—and supportive of—these state interventions in favour of oligarchs, of which they themselves are a part.
At the same time, a comprehensive political attack on “the Left” in Iran has begun. Iran’s economy is being portrayed as communist, and supporters of reform are labelled communists as well.
This week, coinciding with rising social tensions, protests, and sporadic unrest, it was announced that the Government Information Council—now unified and composed of figures such as Elias Hazrati, Mohammad Atrianfar, Mohammad Ghouchani, and Shahabeddin Tabatabai—has been fully mobilized to justify the recent economic coup. This is occurring while, simultaneously, the expansion of state economic intervention in favour of neoliberalism and oligarchs is accompanied by an intensified political campaign promoting state downsizing and decentralization through the transfer of authority to provincial administrations.
Meanwhile, a newly established reformist party called “Ahd-e Iran,” formed by lesser-known Iranian neoliberals, has entered the arena, adding to the array of parties competing for a greater share of Iran’s plundered wealth.
Taken together, these developments show that Iran’s ruling and Western-oriented oligarchs—both reformist and conservative—deeply concerned about future transformations, are advancing three scenarios simultaneously.
The first scenario is a political coup, or in Saeed Laylaz’s words, the emergence of a Western-oriented “Bonaparte” who supports the dollar-based order and whose mission would be to suppress supporters of a pivot to the East and opponents of current economic policies. Should this Bonaparte fail, the second scenario is the “non-military disintegration” of Iran, engineered from above. Finally, if both scenarios fail, the third scenario is reintegration with the West through electoral victory.
Each of these dimensions must be unpacked and their causes and consequences examined.
The Economic Coup
Within a short period, Iran’s economy faced three simultaneous and destructive state interventions, all revolving around currency and exchange rates: a sharp increase in the exchange rate, the removal of subsidized exchange rates for essential goods, and increased fuel and energy input prices under the pretext of exchange-rate adjustment. In effect, the government simultaneously imposed three forms of price controls: one upward currency
pricing benefiting oligarchs, and two price controls on essential goods and energy that directly harmed the livelihoods of the masses.
All the regime’s problems and solutions revolve around currency—and in favor of the ruling dollar-based oligarchy. Without understanding the dollarized nature of this oligarchy, one cannot comprehend the form and rationale of state interventions, opposition to currency repatriation requirements, resistance to subsidized exchange rates, hostility toward the central state, or the intense antagonism toward China and Russia—equated with de-dollarization.
These three interventions were not independent; together, they abruptly disrupted all foundational price structures of the economy. Their consequences will differ sharply for the population, the executive branch, and the ruling dollar oligarchy.
Crushing the People Under the Gears of the Economic Coup
Price shocks resulting from state currency interventions, combined with the substitution of a $7 subsidy, rapidly erode purchasing power. Livelihood insecurity gradually transforms from an “economic issue” into an “existential crisis.” A society struggling for survival either erupts into blind unrest or loses the capacity for sustained political action. This weakens the social foundations of political stability and prepares the ground for legitimizing a political coup.
The Central Government and Its Loss of Function
Inflation increases state expenditures and deepens budget deficits. By actively intervening in favor of dollar-based oligarchs, the government inversely loses its capacity to provide public services or intervene in favor of the masses—and thus loses its executive legitimacy. As the government weakens, the narrative that “there is no alternative but imposed decisions” and the necessity of “major surgeries” becomes pervasive.
Through these “surgeries”—cutting into the flesh of the people to fatten dollar oligarchs—the central state loses public credibility and its legitimacy as a guarantor of territorial integrity.
Capital Flight and the Drift Away from the Center
Conversely, large exporters, major currency holders, and private and state banks engaged in currency speculation—the dollar oligarchy—benefit from state interventions. They earn or hold foreign currency, price globally, and have minimal need for the center. Steel, petrochemical, and major exporters maintain direct external ties and seek to eliminate central government oversight under the banner of free markets.
Selling export earnings on the open market severs their final ties to the central state, strengthening centrifugal tendencies. Gradually, these actors become de facto regional governing units aligned with decentralization rhetoric. Dollar oligarchs either become provincial governors themselves or turn governors into their agents. Provincial governance becomes a boardroom of dominant local cartels, controlling employment, minimal services, and local networks—while national logic disappears from their calculations.
Why Has the Economic Coup Become Inevitable Now?
For two decades, the ruling dollar oligarchy—whose interests lie in dollar dominance and Western integration—relied on sanctions and external threats to justify opaque currency flows and economic interventions. However, two recent developments—the ineffectiveness of the snapback mechanism and the failure of the 12-day war—have trapped this oligarchy in a dead end.
Sanctions have reached their limits due to China’s oil purchases and cooperation within BRICS and Eurasian frameworks. Military threats have only strengthened Iran’s ties with Russia and China. Each wave of pressure reinforces Eastern alignment and strengthens its supporters within the system. Thus, all external pressure tools used to justify oligarchic intervention and Western “normalization” have failed.
Internalizing Pressure and Manufacturing Crisis
With external pressure losing effectiveness, the strategy shifted inward. Society had to be placed against the central government, raising the internal cost of political decision-making. Economic shocks became the tool. The economic coup transforms failed external pressure into effective internal crisis.
The Path Toward Collapse and Non-Military Disintegration
These processes activate three parallel trajectories: vertical collapse through weakening the people and the central state; horizontal fragmentation via dollarization, currency collapse, and provincialization of power; and ideological attacks on the Left that normalize pressure on lower classes and block alternative paths. This mechanism leads to “non-military disintegration”—fragmentation without war, without declarations, without slogans—through economic severance from the center.
Two possible Interventions from Within the System
Continuation of this trajectory is unsustainable, forcing two paths from above. The first is a strategic shift toward a strong, reproductive state: pivoting eastward, pursuing de-dollarization, strengthening national currency, halting shocks, restoring regulatory governance, curbing the dollar oligarchy, and returning to collective interests. The second is consolidation of collapse: deepening crisis, normalizing poverty, and promoting the narrative that “only reconciliation with America can solve Iran’s problems.” This path relies on continuing the economic coup as a political lever, rooted in the shared interests of Westernizers and the dollar oligarchy in global capitalist integration.
The Comprehensive Assault on the Left
In this framework, attacks on the Left, social justice, a strong state, and alignment with China and Russia are not ideological disputes but preemptive strikes against the only real
alternative. That alternative seeks to restore economic links to the center, reclaim export revenues, redistribute surplus, and revive public services.
The ruling oligarchy and Westernizers combine economic coups, anti-Left propaganda, anti-China and anti-Russia rhetoric, and nostalgia for monarchy to portray themselves as continuations of the Shah’s path, blocking any positive change from above.
Thus, two futures confront each other: a return to revolutionary ideals versus a return to monarchy under or beyond the Islamic Republic. The oligarchy brands advocates of revolutionary ideals as “the Left” and scapegoats them for conditions the oligarchy itself created.
The Endgame
Time is against the ruling dollar oligarchy. External pressure only accelerates Eastern integration and public-centered demands. The global order is shifting toward multipolarity; the US economy faces internal deadlock. Western interventionism provokes resistance rather than submission. If the dollar order collapses, the economic and political assets of Iran’s Westernizers will evaporate.
Their frantic interventions reflect desperation, not strength. They are willing to turn Iran into another Ukraine—or push it toward fragmentation—to preserve dollar hegemony.
This is not about individual intentions but about a dominant logic that, if unrestrained, will lead Iran to collapse and fragmentation without war. The recent economic coup is a tool to internalize external pressure and prepare political submission or a right-wing Bonapartist emergence.
Breaking this chain requires a broad national struggle: advancing Left perspectives, ideological confrontation exposing contradictions between current realities and revolutionary ideals, and advocating a strong state aligned with Eastern integration and the dismantling of neoliberal economics.
Mobilizing people around concrete economic demands against the ruling dollar oligarchy; preventing blind, destructive unrest; explaining the necessity of a decisive policy shift; and keeping electoral possibilities open are among the actions available to forces excluded from power to prevent dangerous, anti-national scenarios engineered by a corrupt, Western-oriented ruling oligarchy.
