BANGKOK (AP) — Nearly a year after Russia invaded Ukraine, the battlefield has narrowed and fierce resistance has forced Russia to scale back its military objectives. But the diplomatic aftermath of the war still reverberates around the world.
The fighting has reshaped global alliances, renewed old fears, and breathed new life into alliances between NATO and Europe and the United States.
The invasion brought Moscow closer to Beijing and the Paria provinces of Iran and North Korea. It also raised broader questions about sovereignty, security, and the use of military force, while raising concerns about China’s intentions toward Taiwan. Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted that Ukraine is an “integral part” of Russian history and has never achieved a “true statehood.” This reflects Chinese President Xi Jinping’s position on Taiwan.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be much more complicated than a Russian attack on Ukraine, said Ewan Graham, an expert at the Singapore-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“Russia’s inept performance on the Ukrainian battlefield should deter China’s military and senior political leaders from embarking on more ambitious adventures with Taiwan,” Graham said.
But fear is real. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen extended the country’s conscription in his December announcement, referring to the war in Ukraine. North Korea, threatening a first use of nuclear weapons in various scenarios, was already a regional issue. But Russia’s proposal to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine has fueled new concerns.
South Korea, which is under the protection of the U.S. “nuclear umbrella,” last year expanded military exercises with the U.S. military, which had been curtailed under the Trump administration. South Korea is also seeking stronger assurances that Washington will rapidly deploy its nuclear capabilities in the face of a North Korean nuclear attack.
Only a handful of countries in Asia have cracked down on Moscow, and many have abstained from UN resolutions condemning the attack. Just weeks before the invasion, China declared cross-border friendship with Russia. Russia refused to criticize the war, reaching out to Russia, buying more oil and gas, and helping Russia offset Western sanctions.
But there are signs of a “complicated fault line” in China-Russia relations, Jude Blanchett, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said on a conference call with reporters.
India, which relies heavily on Russia for its military equipment, also abstained from the UN resolution and continued to purchase Russian oil.
But as regional rival China approaches Russia, India is quietly drifting toward the United States, especially among his four quad his countries, which include Japan and Australia, according to the IISS think tank London. His Viraj Solanki, a based expert said. In Europe, the invasion revitalized NATO after President Donald Trump faced a barrage of criticism that prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to declare the alliance to be suffering from “brain death.”
NATO members and allies are joining forces to help Ukraine, adopting some modified policies banning arms exports to conflict-affected countries. Perhaps most notably, Germany broke the taboo after World War II and offered the Leopard main battle tank.
The war also prompted Finland and Sweden to seek membership in NATO. Most experts believe it will be approved this year.
China claims that the Ukrainian crisis was triggered by the United States, partly because of NATO’s expansion into more Eastern European countries. Beijing has also criticized the alliance for saying the war could influence China’s behavior in Asia.
