BY Miss SOBIA CHOUHAN
The situation of peace on the earth and scenarios of deteriorating global political instabilities, chaos, anarchy and rising conflicts among states make the circumstances worst day by day.
The ongoing Russia-Ukrine war and on the other hand, changing alliances, climate changes, alarming environmental problems, the energy crisis and the china Taiwan issues are adding fuel to the flames which could burn the peace of the world. Are these conflicts leading towards a world war? just a little misunderstanding could lead the peace of the world into a dream of the glorious past of humanity and could become the starting point of the end of history and could lead the progressive and prosperous world into the doom day. Is anyone listening to the knocking of this disaster? what is the United Nations waiting for? where are the international peacemakers and wellwishers of humanity sleeping or waiting for what? what is going on after all, who is waiting for whom? The situation is really becoming vulnerable day by day and it looks like that not even a single person or state or organisation damn care about this rapidly raising noise of upcoming disaster. This silence of the world looks like absolute silence before absolute Chaos.
Russian President Putin invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022 due to the expansion of NATO towards eastern Ukraine. There are several reasons behind Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from history, ideology and culture to the gain of power. However, its aggression of Putin towards the west is manifesting that Russia‘s sole purpose in the invasion was to demilitarize Ukraine from NATO’s military power and got it back from western influence. In March when Biden was given a tough time on involvement in Russia Ukraine conflict he said ‘’Direct conflict of NATO and Russia is world war ll. Something we must strive to prevent’’. But on the other hand, the USA’s consistent support of Kyiv in the form of tanks, and NATO forces is a manifestation of something dangerous. Dangerous not just for the western block and Russia but for the rest of the world also. The increasing uncertainties among countries due to the geopolitics of energy, are pushing countries to rethink every aspect of their foreign policy decisions. The increasing geopolitics in the form of new alliances is surely leading the world to another global order. Let’s discuss the factors that are making these threats of world war a reality.
The first and biggest factor is Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine. It is challenging the nation-state system, making the sovereignty and integrity of nations worthless. Intensifying the insecurities of nations, as these are thinking of a balance of power. And clearly, National interests are shaping their relations. Furthermore, the US increasing military support to Ukraine and Moscow’s aggression towards the western block are alarming the threats of world war.
Second, The sanctions on Russia after it invades Ukraine and its retaliation in the form of tightening taps over gas and oil flows to European nations are triggering the energy crisis, all over the world. As Europe was highly dependent on Moscow for its energy imports. It has been badly affecting their economies since October 2022. Europe including America is looking towards other energy-rich countries to restore their economies. This energy politics by Russia is not favourable for the liberal world order of Peace and cooperation.
Third, the new oil war between Washington and Riyadh is another threat to the world war. On a recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Biden requested the kingdom to increase the flow of oil to keep its prices in the market. But OPEC countries opposed it and decided to cut the flow of oil. This action of OPEC countries has infuriated the global power which was shown in Biden’s response to the kingdom’s decision.
Fourth, the increasing geostrategic and geo-economics ties of Russia and China are openly challenging the US in the indo-pacific region. The rising power of china together with Russia can surely bring a tough time for Washington. The trade war between China and US is already damaging their relationship. The economic interdependency has been preventing these two powers from any direct conflict. But a minor mistake on the part of any state can push the world into an unending war.
On the other side, The China-Taiwan issue is becoming another flashpoint in the global community. Washington has declared to support Taiwan in case of china’s invasion or occupation. Whereas Beijing thinks of it as an internal issue. It has also warned the US from getting involved in their internal matter. The two military and economic superpowers are confronting each other on the Taiwan issue. their stance on the Taiwan issue might be the most consequential to their relationship and for the rest of the world.
Besides these factors, India is growing its trade with Moscow, ignoring the western sanctions. Washington’s most reliable friend has become the biggest importer of Russian oil. Pakistan is also avoiding becoming part of any block. Moreover, it has not condemned Russia for its move.
so, this is a game of power. Geo-economics has overpowered geopolitics. Instability in the world is at its peak. But these growing uncertainties and instabilities can switch the world into another unending war. As the globalized community is highly integrated socially, economically and politically, any flashpoint at any place could result in a huge catastrophe. Some scholars said that Putin just wants to clear Ukraine from NATO forces. But what the US is looking for? On one side there is Russia, on another hand, it is china’s two rivals on one page.
Beijing and Moscow are confronting their rival and transforming the world order from unipolar to multipolar. Is this transition would be peaceful or not? The future will determine it.
However, in this changing scenario, it is time for global powers especially Washington to play a positive role, if it wants to retain their hegemony. These powers should give respect to the borders of states and make them feel safe from other powerful nations. It is not bad to restore the stability of the world, at the cost of some national interests. This will surely result in the demilitarization of states and cooperation among them. The great powers should strive hard to bring the states with their grievances to the negotiation table, rather than favouring any one side. These small moves will surely reduce the threats of world war III and could save humanity from the most vulnerable war history would have ever witnessed so far.
(Miss Sobia Chouhan is a Scholar of International Relations and Defence and Strategic Studies Analyst and Researcher based in Islamabad)
