London (Reuters) Oil fell on Monday as threats of rate hikes by major central banks and signs of strong Russian exports offset rising tensions in the Middle East over drone attacks in Iran and hopes of rising demand from China.
Investors expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank the next day when he raises them by 0.5 points. Deviations from this script are a shock.
The market’s cautious risk appetite ahead of a central bank meeting has hit risky assets, including oil,” said Fiona Cincotta, an analyst at City Index.
Brent crude fell 27 cents (0.3%) to $86.39 a barrel by 1325 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $79.38. The market was also pressured on signs of strong Russian supplies despite the EU ban and the G7 price cap on Ukraine’s aggression. Both oil benchmarks posted their first weekly losses in three weeks last week.
In addition to the central bank meeting, Wednesday’s focus will also be on the meeting of key ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ fgroup, which consists of allies led by Russia. The OPEC+ board meeting on Wednesday is unlikely to tweak oil production policy.
Oil prices rose early Monday on tensions in the Middle East following a drone strike in Iran.
It is not yet clear what is happening in Iran, but any escalation in Iran could disrupt oil flows, said Stefano Grasso, senior manager of his portfolio at 8VantEdge in Singapore.
Expectations of increased demand from China have pushed oil prices higher in 2023. The world’s largest crude oil importer pledged over the weekend to help boost consumption to support demand.Oil prices fell on Monday, giving up earlier gains, as global producers this week will likely keep output unchanged during a meeting this week and investors are cautious ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting that may spur market volatility.
China will resume business this week after the Lunar New Year holiday. A Citi analyst said in a statement, citing data from the Department of Transportation, that while the number of passengers traveling before holidays was above the levels of the past two years, he was still below 2019.
“Overall international traffic recovery remains modest in the high single digits to low teens at levels seen in 2019, with outbound tour groups resuming on 6 February. Further recovery is expected,” City said in a release.
