By Dr Majid Khan (Melbourne):
Over the last three decades, China has transformed its defense sector from a modest importer to a powerful global arms exporter. This strategic evolution has disrupted traditional Western dominance, with Beijing now using arms sales as a tool to project influence, reshape alliances, and embed itself deeper into regional and global conflicts.
Historically, China depended heavily on Soviet and Russian weapon systems to modernize the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). However, under former Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Deng Xiaoping’s “Four Modernizations” program (agriculture, industry, defense, and science and technology), defense reform became a priority. By the 1990s, China began reducing its reliance on reverse-engineered systems and moved toward developing indigenous platforms. This pivot gave birth to state-owned giants like Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO), and China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), which now dominate China’s defense production and exports.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China was the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter from 2020–2024, accounting for 5.2% of total global arms exports, behind only the U.S., France, and Russia. China’s growth is underpinned by its ability to offer modern, lower-cost weapons with fewer political restrictions.
A striking example is Pakistan, which now sources 81% of its imported weapons from China, up from a balanced split with the U.S. in the 2000s. These sales reflect not only shared security interests but also China’s strategic goal of expanding influence along Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) corridor.
In May 2025, during an aerial conflict with India, Pakistan claimed its Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets shot down several Indian aircraft, including French-made Rafales and Russian-designed Su-30s, using PL-15 beyond-visual-range missiles. While India has not confirmed losses, a French defense source acknowledged one Rafale downing. The J-10C’s performance, at over 160 km engagement range; provided Beijing a public relations coup, boosting AVIC stock by 40% in two days and signaling a new era of global competitiveness for Chinese platforms.
China’s arms sales are strategic tools, not just economic transactions. Exports to Pakistan, Myanmar, and various African and Middle Eastern countries allow Beijing to safeguard BRI assets and deepen security ties. In Pakistan, for example, co-production of the JF-17 Thunder and supply of advanced systems like the HQ-9B air defense system has entrenched military alignment.
In Africa, over 70% of Sub-Saharan militaries now use Chinese arms. Ghana’s acquisition of PHL-11 rocket launchers and Zimbabwe’s PTL-02 anti-tank guns reflect how military deals often accompany infrastructure and resource agreements, building China’s influence across the continent.
In the Middle East, China maintains ties on both sides of sectarian divides, selling to Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, balancing its diplomacy while gaining economic and strategic advantage.
Despite its gains, China’s arms industry faces persistent challenges. Complaints over product reliability, such as drone crashes in Iraq or malfunctioning equipment in Algeria; highlight quality control issues. Moreover, China’s after-sales support is limited compared to U.S. or Russian systems, which provide extensive training and maintenance services.
Its “no strings attached” policy on arms sales, while commercially effective, has drawn global criticism. Supplying weapons to sanctioned regimes like Sudan, Myanmar, and Venezuela risks exacerbating instability and associating Beijing with authoritarian repression. These factors present reputational risks for China’s long-term strategy.
China is aggressively expanding into next-generation defense sectors. Exports of AI-powered systems, cyber warfare tools, and UAVs such as Wing Loong and Blowfish have made it a leader in unmanned systems, particularly appealing to nations barred from buying U.S. or Israeli drones.
Beijing’s Beidou satellite navigation system is another linchpin, integrated into many exported platforms. These technical linkages lock client states into Chinese systems, creating long-term strategic dependencies and reinforcing Beijing’s influence over foreign defense planning.
China’s arms exports shape security dynamics in multiple regions. In Southeast Asia, sales to both Vietnam and the Philippines create dual dependencies, even amid territorial disputes in the South China Sea, complicating U.S. defense postures.
In Latin America, Chinese arms exports to Venezuela, Argentina, and Bolivia offer Beijing access into Washington’s traditional sphere of influence. Coupled with military education programs and infrastructure financing, these relationships challenge U.S. regional dominance.
China’s military doctrine also emphasizes expanding long-sea capabilities. Reports suggest plans to build overseas bases in Africa and the Middle East, supported by arms sales networks; aimed at protecting critical trade routes and energy flows during crisis scenarios.
China’s ascent in the global arms market marks a fundamental shift in the international defense order. Its mix of affordability, flexible diplomacy, and growing technological prowess allows it to compete directly with Western powers, not just in volume but also in strategic influence.
While quality, ethical, and geopolitical concerns remain, China’s approach, blending arms sales with broader foreign policy and economic goals; is already reshaping global alliances, challenging Western norms, and redefining how military influence is projected in the 21st century.
As great-power competition intensifies, China’s central role in the global arms race will become increasingly decisive, especially for countries seeking alternatives to traditional Western suppliers.
