Wagner Group in Mali: A strategic link to the Russia-Ukraine War

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Image credit:Newsweek

By Ali Aouyeche(Algeria)

In recent years, Mali has become a focal point for Russian influence in Africa, with the notorious Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization with close ties to the Kremlin, playing a significant role. Wagner’s presence in Mali, where it provides military assistance to the government in the fight against insurgent groups, has raised concerns across the international community. What is particularly noteworthy, however, is the timing of their deployment and the potential strategic objectives behind it—objectives that appear closely connected to Russia’s broader geopolitical ambitions, especially in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

The Wagner Group’s Role in Mali

The Wagner Group first made its presence felt in Mali in late 2021, shortly after the military coup that ousted the democratically elected president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta. Following this coup, the new Malian junta, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, sought to distance itself from former colonial power France, which had been involved in counterterrorism operations in the Sahel through Operation Barakhane. In search of alternative support, the junta turned to Russia, eventually inviting the Wagner Group to assist in the country’s battle against jihadist groups operating in the region, including al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates.

The group’s involvement in Mali has since included training the Malian military, providing security for government officials, and offering direct military assistance in combat operations against extremist groups in the Sahel. Wagner’s role has extended beyond mere military support; the group has been accused of human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings and other violent acts against civilians, further complicating the political landscape in the country.

Mali’s Shift to Russia

The decision to invite Wagner into Mali came amid increasing dissatisfaction with France’s role in the region. Mali’s new leaders viewed the French forces as ineffective in curbing the growing insurgency, and, more critically, they felt that France’s military presence represented an infringement on the country’s sovereignty. In this vacuum, Russia has moved in as an alternative ally, offering military aid and support without the political strings typically attached to Western assistance.

This shift has not gone unnoticed on the international stage. The presence of Wagner in Mali represents a clear geopolitical pivot toward Russia, at a time when Moscow has increasingly sought to expand its influence across Africa. Wagner’s operations in Mali align with Russia’s broader objectives of gaining a foothold in strategic regions, particularly in countries rich in resources such as gold and uranium, both of which are abundant in Mali.

The Connection to the Russia-Ukraine War

The timing of Wagner’s deployment to Mali raises important questions about the broader geopolitical strategies at play, particularly regarding Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The involvement of Wagner in Mali is not only a reflection of Russia’s growing presence in Africa but also indicative of the strategic maneuvering Russia is undertaking as part of its efforts to manage multiple fronts simultaneously.

First, the arrival of Wagner in Mali coincides with a critical period in Russia’s relations with the West. Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent conflict in Ukraine, Russia has faced increasing sanctions and diplomatic isolation from Western powers. The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has only worsened this situation, with the West imposing further sanctions, targeting Russian financial systems and businesses. As a result, Russia has had to find alternative means of projecting power and securing its economic interests.

In this context, the Wagner Group serves as a flexible and deniable tool for the Kremlin. By deploying Wagner in countries like Mali, Russia can maintain influence in key regions without officially committing its own military forces. In Mali, Wagner’s operations not only bolster the junta’s power but also secure access to valuable resources, including gold mines, which are critical for Russia’s economy, especially in light of Western sanctions.

Moreover, Russia’s increasing involvement in African countries like Mali can be seen as part of a broader effort to diversify its international alliances. With the West preoccupied with the Ukraine conflict, Russia has focused its diplomatic efforts on strengthening ties with African nations, offering military support, economic partnerships, and assistance in resource extraction. This strategy aligns with Russia’s goal of shifting the global balance of power away from Western dominance and creating alternative spheres of influence.

Implications for Mali and Beyond

The presence of the Wagner Group in Mali has far-reaching implications for both the country and the wider African continent. On one hand, Mali receives military support that is seen as effective in dealing with jihadist insurgents. On the other hand, Wagner’s involvement has raised serious human rights concerns, with reports of brutal tactics, killings, and abuses against civilians. This poses a dilemma for Mali, as it seeks to balance its security needs with the long-term consequences of relying on a controversial paramilitary group that operates outside international law.